Trapped like a rat

In Europe and the United States, a debate is already raging over whether the actions of the United States and the spectacular arrest of Nicolás Maduro by US special forces are in accordance with international law – and of course, this is open to debate.

The United States maintains that Maduro is not the legitimate president of Venezuela. This is true: he massively rigged the July 2024 elections.

They also claim that Maduro is a drug trafficker and therefore arrested him.

This has also been known for years: Venezuela’s socialist regime has been challenged by a large part of the international community since the presidential election of July 2024.

Here is an analysis of the likely repercussions

The arrest of the head of state will create an immediate power vacuum.

Risk of civil war: Maduro’s inner circle (the « Chavismo » movement) and the Venezuelan military, which controls a large part of the economy, could fracture.

A struggle between loyalists and those seeking a transition could escalate into armed conflict.

The opposition (led by Edmundo González or Maria Corina Machado) would attempt to seize control, but would face fierce resistance from pro-government paramilitary groups (the colectivos).

A global diplomatic crisis

The arrest of a sitting president by a foreign power is an act of extreme gravity under international law.

Reaction of the allies (Russia, China, Iran, Cuba): These countries would denounce a flagrant violation of national sovereignty and a state « kidnapping. » This could permanently freeze relations between Washington and the BRICS+ bloc.

Division in Latin America: While some countries (Argentina, El Salvador) might welcome this, other regional giants like Brazil (Lula) or Colombia (Petro) would likely condemn the method, fearing destabilization of the entire continent.

Impact on Energy Markets
Venezuela possesses the world’s largest oil reserves.

Price Instability: An arrest would trigger an immediate and temporary surge in oil prices due to uncertainty surrounding production.

The role of oil companies: Companies like Chevron, which operate in Venezuela under special licenses, would find themselves in a complete legal and security gray area.

The fate of Nicolás Maduro in the United States

Extradited to the United States, the trial will be historic.

It would be the first time since the arrest of Panamanian Manuel Noriega in 1989 that a foreign leader has been tried in the USA.

The drug trafficking and money laundering charges would take years to be brought to trial, becoming a permanent media and political saga.